As they say, they waited. The closure of the flight. Oil at 33. The dollar at 75. Exchange panic. And “zeroing” in addition. Full house. But those who, after each crisis, asked, “Should we wait 5 years until it gets better?” once again received an eloquent answer to their question.

What will happen to prices, sales, demand now?

Rewrite price tags? Wait? To sell out? We at ArtSale.info think as follows.

• A segment of less than 100,000 rubles. There will be no increase in prices due to the dollar. As it did not happen in previous crises. On the contrary. Here, frankly, we should expect a fall in every sense. Both in money and in sold works. Why? The main buyers of inexpensive paintings by artists of local fame, drawings, prints are beginner collectors, the initial middle class and people who make emotional purchases on the basis of the “just liked it” principle. They, alas, are the most vulnerable to the crisis, pass into the economy mode faster than anyone, and refuse to acquire art.
• A segment of about 300,000 rubles. This includes, in particular, the running paintings of the nonconformist artists — de facto, hits of Russian auctions. The 300+ segment will feel better than the rest in terms of demand and liquidity. But here, too, a marked increase in prices will not occur. What cost 300,000 rubles ($ 5,000 in the old way) will not instantly cost 375,000 ($ 5,000 in a new way). Not. Prices will run into real demand. Moreover, the “300+ segment” will remain, according to our assumptions, the most lively. Here, sales in pieces should not be greatly reduced.
• The segment, relatively, above $ 15,000 (that is, above a million rubles in the old way). Everything here, as was counted in dollars, will remain so in dollars. And sales were piece-wise, and will remain piece-wise. That is, in rubles prices will rise in proportion to the dollar (or almost). I repeat, the top segment has always been a highly individual story. The laws of mass demand do not apply to it. There is no reason to expect any booming sales revival here. But sales will not freeze at all. Buyers of the top segment understand that good opportunities do not always fall out and try not to miss them.

What will happen next, as the crisis develops?

• The speed of transactions will increase. The jumps in the course will lead to the fact that sellers will agree to discounts if they give the money back immediately and quickly.
• The supply of quality work in the market will increase. Many of those who have been waiting for better times since 2008 and have already cut into the third crisis in a row, this time will still be disappointed in art as a defensive asset. The conversations “I’d better leave it for my grandchildren”, “I will wait until it gets more expensive”, “I bought more expensive” will end, the moment of sobriety will come.
• A strong overall decline in business activity will occur. Both private individuals and legal entities, just in case, will reduce all optional expenses. Psychologically, it’s easier for many to “conserve” and wait through difficult times even with the means.

In this regard...

What do sellers do?

Reasonable behavior in this situation is to appreciate any interest shown, not to miss a single opportunity and agree on a minimum acceptable price. In no case do not be greedy and do not wait for the mythical buyer, “who has all the money in dollars”. Frankly speaking, there is nothing to wait for. There is a chance to sell — sell. No need to torment yourself with doubts and regrets. After all, who can guarantee that tomorrow the situation will not get worse.

What do customers do?

It’s pragmatic to use the moment. Buy the best at good prices. Such an opportunity will not always exist. Owners of masterpieces will close current financial holes and cease to be accommodating. Many will return to the passive mode “I will leave it better for my grandchildren”, “I will wait for better times”, “and suddenly”, “well, someday it will happen again” and so on. In general, those who have money and desire will now be interested. The crisis is one of the most profitable moments for the formation of collections. It's true.

Another observation. How is this crisis different from the previous ones?

We are still in debut. Although the baptism of fire has already passed. Let me remind you that we held our AS No. 11 auction exactly on a black Tuesday, March 10, 2020. What can be noted already? There was no exchange rate panic. There were no frightened calls like “Oh, the ruble collapsed, let's increase the reserve from 120,000 to 150,000”. Everyone understands everything. People are experienced, scared and shot. On the other hand, millionth sales on Black Tuesday didn’t come either (but they were awaited). And if they had happened — then there would have been a sticky conversation on revising the course and individual work on rapprochement of positions.

In a word, there is no need to hang your nose or vice versa engage in cap-making. Pessimists should remember that crises for our country have become almost a routine. This is already a “natural” part of a difficult life, with which many have somehow learned to cope. Well, optimists should pay attention to the fact that the Americans are already threatening an investigation into the oil dumping of Russia and Saudi Arabia. So it’s not at all a fact that we have already passed the lowest point of the crisis. We will continue to need all the strength and all pragmatism.

Well, we will observe, be surprised and adapt. Not the first time.

Vladimir Bogdanov, Konstantin Babulin, ASi