From Moscow to the long-suffering Chinese Wuhan — 6340 km. By early February, neighbors had more than 37,000 sick and more than 800 dead. This is only official. But time goes on, there are no reports about cases of the disease in Moscow. Therefore, the former semi-panicky sentiments began to be rapidly replaced by cap-hatters. “Knowing people” already make it clear that the epidemic is about to be taken under control, everything will end in March-April, and the effect of the virus on the Russian economy will be quite insignificant.

Wow! I have already heard about the timing and impact of not the economy somewhere.

I have remembered, it was in 2014. After the first American packages of “Crimean” sanctions, professional “knowledgeable people” with conspiratorial appearance reported that the sanctions would be lifted in six months, that we would quickly reconcile with the Americans, that the ruble exchange rate would drop slightly, and that’s all rubbish, don’t tell my Iskander. And we hung our ears and nodded our heads. How it ended, remember? Oil went to the bottom, the dollar began to cost 60 rubles instead of 36, the seventh year sanctions sap our economy, a significant part of the middle class goes from paycheck to paycheck, and Russian-American relations have reached the lowest level in 30 years of history. And where are all those «knowledgeable people» now?

Wuhan Coronavirus is a ruthless demonstration of the “butterfly effect” in an era of economic globalization and high-speed transportation. Just think: the outbreak of some kind of infection in some city market in a distant Chinese city caused a global crisis. And we are likely to get it too.

What we all expect in the general economic plan is already approximately clear. Globally affected (and severely) trade, import, retail. Precautions will drag down the tourism industry. People have already begun to fly and ride less. Only for urgent need. Not only tours are canceled, but business trips, major international exhibitions, art fairs, air shows and business forums. And not only in China. Stations and airports are rightly perceived as unsafe crowded places. Transportation “laid down”. Oil consumption dropped sharply. World Factory”has stopped many of its production in quarantine. Oil demand in China has already fallen by 20%. Black gold prices are going down. The ruble will inevitably go the same way. Budget revenues will decrease. A lot of social promises have just been given. Where will the authorities take extra money? Likely to begin to raise “collectability”. From small business as well. Most likely, the old “levers” are used to, and all the talk about improving the business climate will turn out to be a fiction that year.

Now from abstract to concrete. Let's say the exchange rate jumps to 100 rubles per dollar (which is not the most fantastic scenario now). What are the consequences for the art market?

1. The first two or three weeks of the crisis of 2020 (if the ruble falls sharply) we will observe, if not chaos, then the highest form of uncertainty. Sellers of expensive works will be the first to stop deals and begin to revise prices. However, they may not be in a hurry much, because traditional large buyers will also not be at all interested in art. What will happen next?
2. Sales in the budget segment (contemporary art, works of not very famous authors, sketches of the first names, prints) will stop almost completely. Buyers of paintings up to 60,000 rubles — the middle class — are traditionally the most vulnerable in a period of economic uncertainty. Needless to say, the rise in prices in rubles for affordable painting will not happen. On the contrary. That which cost 60,000 rubles at the rate of 60 per dollar will cost 40,000 rubles at the rate of 100 per dollar. Conditionally $ 1000 will turn into $ 400. Yes, try to sell.
3. Demand for expensive works of the first names of the museum class (masterpieces) will recover in a month or two. But potential buyers will aggressively demand discounts. And get them. However, I do not expect a strong correction of dollar prices in the expensive segment. Because wealthy buyers are often confronted by no less wealthy owners of high-class work. For the latter, selling paintings is not a way to earn a living, but rather a sport.
4. The business conditions for trading in art will worsen. For the sake of «collecting» and «replenishing the budget» in the medium term, we can expect an increase in state pressure on the art business in the entrepreneurial line. At the same time, we can expect increased control over the operations of individuals — buyers and sellers from among collectors. There is no beginning for digitalization, no end for digitalization. The state will be increasingly interested in the contents of the pockets of citizens, try to monitor other people's incomes and expenses. Which, however, is also a historically inevitable process.

Is there even a drop of positive in the new situation? Is it possible to extract at least something useful from it?

Perhaps the only thing that’s not bad is that among the listed consequences of the 2020 crisis there is nothing completely new. All this we have already gone through. With oil, with the ruble, with the state. The crisis in Russia has not stopped since 2008. Rather, it can be called a sharp aggravation of previous trends. And over 12 years some kind of immunity has already formed. And this gives a chance to “get” the crisis of 2020 in a mild form.

Yes, the market will not grow — it's a pity. But it will not crash down in full swing.

In general, coronavirus is not such a “black swan” as it is customary to present. Every second anti-utopia film and a whole genre of zombie apocalypse are based on the idea of an uncontrolled infection. Everyone understood that this would someday happen, the question is only in a specific date. But it turns out that nobody really prepared. It turns out that the current misfortune, with the right approach, will become a warning and a cruel lesson for the whole world. Affected countries will develop new protocols, draw up response procedures, and deploy reserve hospital capacities. And next time (and there is no doubt that this strain is not the last) the whole world will be ready for such a misfortune much better. Any reason for optimism.

Vladimir Bogdanov, ASi