The once hated symbols of social disconnection — smartphones, the Internet and social networks — in these tragic days turned out to be just saving technologies for many. Including for sellers, buyers and connoisseurs of art in quarantine. Online exhibitions, online lectures, online fairs, online auctions... The virus simply forcibly drove entire countries into the era of remote consumption that was despised until recently. Yes, imperfect. Yes, without “live communication” and “warm human contact”. But safe.

And it is already clear that by July 2020, when public art events, fairs and auctions resume, a lot will change forever. Not only the art market, but also the whole culture of art consumption.

What's new is to be expected in three months:

1. There will be an increase in the audience of new people who are versed in art — that is, potential buyers, carriers of “pent-up demand”. It’s clear why this will happen. To begin to understand art, you need free time and conditions. And quarantine measures created an increased demand for advanced training and intellectual rest. Museums and cultural institutions offered to self-isolated people an unprecedented amount of training and development distance programs. In March-April-May a huge volume of books will be read and a monstrous number of movies will be watched. Among which will be those about art. As a result, after three months, the neophytes quitting quarantines will miss the exhibitions and are ready to try their hand at fairs and auctions.
    
2. Enormous forces and resources will be pumped into the emergency digitalization of the art business. First of all, in fairs and online sales. And it’s not even that important people will suddenly believe in the advantage of Internet technologies. No, rather, the matter is in the acquired fear and the desire to hedge. After all, just so many important people saw for the first time how, in a few hours, a decision was made on the early closure of TEFAF, the most important and ongoing fair. We saw how the offices of the world's leading auction houses were closed and prestigious seasonal auctions were canceled. Saw around canceled and postponed. Regardless of statuses and regalia. After March 2020, everyone understands that after canceling any exhibition a few days or even hours before the opening, no one else will tremble. So now you will always need a powerful online. At least as a backup channel, as a hedging element, as a compelled plan “B”. And you look, they will get a taste and make it plan “A”. In any case, the result of the infusion of investments in the digitalization of the art business will be the emergence of new players. This means that soon we will face increased competition in the field of online art trade.
    
3. The number of distance buyers will replenish with experienced conservative collectors of the 60+ generation. Many of them started buying 20 years ago, and, to be honest, historically broadcast skepticism about the Internet. They said that the Internet interferes with expensive sales, that it’s bad to “highlight” good things online and stuff like that. One could convince them arbitrarily that these were prejudices. Over the years. But the real danger beyond the threshold of the house pushed this educational process. By the end of quarantine, many older collectors will register at auctions and quickly figure out how to bargain and buy online.
    
4. Until the end of the year, you can expect an unprecedented boom of new creative ideas and breakthrough art projects. Quarantine promotes productive reflection among creative people and art managers. What has been spinning in the head for a long time, but not enough time, will finally take on a complete look. Alas, some of the plans will not be realized due to lack of money. After all, the art industry will not only record losses and will lick its wounds for several years. But in the end, life will triumph anyway.
    
5. In three months, a noticeable pent-up demand for art will accumulate. Collectors get bored. But when this demand is realized in purchases — a question. We remember that a market boom occurs under two conditions: when people have money and when they have a good mood amid confidence in the future. With the latter will be tight. But what if it happens sooner?

Rereading the above — it seems that everything is almost for the best. It may seem that the quarantine crisis is a motivating kick that should have been given to the conservative art industry for a long time. But no. Of course not. The price is too high. Human lives, a series of ruins and private human tragedies. No progress is worth it. And then you should be aware that online is only good in places. This is definitely not a panacea, but the essence of the forced exchange of some restrictions and shortcomings for other restrictions and shortcomings. When customers stop physically coming to watch items and communicate with sellers, this will be a serious blow to real sales. Because it is precisely at such moments of communication in quiet pantries that impulses to buy arise. I came for one, at the same time I saw another, took the time to think, bought in a week — this delicate mechanism during self-isolation will fail. No online repair and compensation. Especially in a short time.

Okay, what is there to lament. We live on. We are observing. And we are learning. After all, pandemics like this one will be repeated. It is unlikely that anyone has doubts about this. Globalization, high speed of transport, slowdown in the development of new generations of antibiotics — all one to one. We are getting involved in a difficult civilization stage. It’s good that some lessons have already been learned. Next time, countries will be much better prepared for the epidemiological challenges. We will receive important information. We will understand in which places the quarantine is justified, and in which it does not make sense. And when it flares up again, the authorities will no longer slap their thighs, they will immediately launch the proven protocols “like last time”.

Vladimir Bogdanov, ASi